一． Supply side: new domestic production capacity or change the global supply pattern

From the global nylon market, nylon 6 and nylon 66 account for more than 95% of the total production capacity and output. According to IHS report, in 2020 the global nylon 6 capacity of 10.52 million tons / year, nylon 66 capacity of 3.17 million tons / year. Domestic nylon 6 because the raw material caprolactam has been localized, the rapid growth of production capacity in the past decade, the domestic nylon 6 production capacity in 2020 reached 6.47 million tons / year, accounting for about 62% of the global production capacity, the production capacity of the top twelve enterprises accounted for more than 36%, mostly concentrated in East China, South China and other developed regions. According to our Hua’an Chemical statistics, there will be 2.78 million tons of new production capacity in the future. At present, the domestic nylon 6 mainly produces fiber material, the future with the expansion of production capacity led to fierce competition, more manufacturers will be involved in engineering plastics and other high value-added areas.

The capacity of nylon 66 is dwarfed by that of nylon 6. At present, the domestic production capacity of nylon 66 about 600,000 tons / year, mainly due to the synthesis of one of the monomer adipamide raw material adiponitrile long monopoly in the hands of a few foreign manufacturers. In recent years, the localization of adiponitrile breakthroughs, production capacity is expected to increase rapidly, the current planning and under construction nylon 66 production capacity of 1.26 million tons / year.

二． The demand side: China’s market space growth potential

Due to the nature of nylon 6 and nylon 66 differences, nylon 6 and nylon 66 demand structure is different. 71% of nylon 6 for textile filaments, industrial filaments and other fiber fields, 29% for engineering resins. While 59% of nylon 66 is used for engineering resins. In the future, with the boom in plastics, it is estimated that more nylon 66 and nylon 6 will be used for engineering resins.

In addition to China’s nylon demand market, from the rest of the world’s nylon 6 and nylon 66 consumption performance, nearly six years of global nylon 6 consumption in 2.5 million tons / year up and down, nylon 66 consumption in 1.5 million tons / year fluctuations, the future is expected after the recovery of the epidemic demand will have a certain degree of rebound, but due to the current cost of nylon in foreign developed countries under the penetration rate has been higher, the long-term trend of slow growth, future growth Demand look at China.

Relative to global market performance, China’s nylon market demand growth momentum is rapid. From 2015 to 2019, nylon 6 consumption increased by 1.08 million tonnes/year, with an average annual growth rate of 9.7%, despite the epidemic affecting demand in 2020, consumption fell by only 4.4% (9.6% in the rest of the world); at the same stage, nylon 66 consumption increased by 44,000 tonnes/year, a quantity comparable to the growth in all other regions of the world. With the increase in raw material production capacity, cost reduction, as well as the improvement in people’s living standards and the need for high-quality goods, the next ten years is expected to have a large growth in domestic consumption of nylon 6 and nylon 66.